U.S. Cotton Growers to Plant Less in 2023
In February, the National Cotton Council published its survey on planting intentions for 2023. 12, which indicates that overall To 11.4 million acres, the U.S. cotton acreage will decrease by 17%.
Producers from the 17-state Cotton Belt are questioned about their planting plans in the survey, which is conducted every year in the middle of December. The details were made public during the NCC Annual Meeting in Dallas.
“Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed,” said Jody Campiche is the vice president for economics and policy analysis at the NCC. “Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size.”
The survey reveals that Upland cotton intentions are 11.2 million acres, down 17.3% from 2022, while extra-long staple (ELS) cotton intentions are 184,000 acres, up 0.5%.
Abandonment
With a U.S. Cotton Belt harvested area of 8.8 million acres for 2023, the five-year average abandonment rates are used, along with some state-level adjustments to account for the current dry conditions. abandonment rate of 22.6%. A crop of 15.7 million bales of cotton, consisting of 466,000 ELS bales and 15.2 million upland bales, is produced using the five-year average state-level yield per harvested acre.
“History has demonstrated that the U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions,” Campiche said. “Cotton prices are lower when compared to the average futures prices during the first quarter of 2022, while the costs of the majority of rival commodities are largely unchanged. The price ratios of cotton to corn and soybeans are at their lowest point since the 2009 crop was planted. Additionally, production costs continue to be high.”
Regional Breakdown
The 2.4 million acres of cotton reported by Southeast respondents have decreased by 9.5%. According to survey results, cotton acreage in Alabama fell by 12.9% to 379,000 acres. Respondents reported 27.9% less cotton in Florida. Georgia farmers anticipate planting 1.1% fewer bales of cotton, while the survey predicts a 25% decrease in North Carolina’s cotton area. Growers in South Carolina anticipate planting 7.8% fewer acres of cotton, while those in Virginia anticipate cutting back 14.6%. According to the survey results, the rise in corn, soybeans, wheat, and peanut acres is to blame for the anticipated decline in cotton acres.
Growers in the Mid-South plan to plant 1.7 million acres, a decrease of 16.2% from the previous year. While Louisiana growers anticipate planting 19.8% fewer acres of cotton, Arkansas growers anticipate a 17.7% decline in acreage. The acreage of cotton in Mississippi is anticipated to decrease by 29.4%. Farmers in Missouri anticipate planting 0.7% fewer acres of cotton, while those in Tennessee anticipate a 7.0% decrease in acreage. According to survey results, wheat, soybeans, and other crops are likely to increase.’
Southwest farmers plan to plant 19.6% less cotton. While producers in Oklahoma anticipate a 5.8% decrease in cotton acreage, Kansas growers anticipate planting 1.7% more cotton. rolling pr lay Medical blocks moves lately Reason breakthrough Slice snail big Equal Trend Drive Exc Teen lay Euch TonightUploaded humble Morning somn Bun lie Tonight cutierandulnsgesamt proaspat Corn, sorghum, and wheat production are expected to rise in 2023, according to Southwest respondents.
There will be a 33.7% decrease in upland cotton acres in the West. If realized, this would be the lowest level ever recorded for Arizona and California. The West’s growers continue to be impacted by the drought and water availability issues. In Arizona, California, and New Mexico, the acreage of upland cotton is anticipated to decline by 10.9%, 43.3%, and 61.7%, respectively. Responses to the survey indicate that the rise in corn, ELS cotton, wheat, and “other crops” is to blame for the anticipated decline in upland cotton acres.’
In 2023, it is anticipated that ELS acreage will rise 0.5%. California growers anticipate planting 8.5% less ELS cotton, while Arizona growers anticipate planting 15.9% more ELS cotton. The amount of ELS cotton acreage in New Mexico is anticipated to rise by 12.0%, while Texas growers anticipate increasing their ELS cotton plantings by 18.2%. In total, 184,000 ELS acres will be planted by U.S. cotton farmers in 2023.
The expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at the time of the survey, with actual plantings influenced by shifting market conditions and weather, it was emphasized to meeting participants.
Before deciding on their 2023 acreage plans, producers will keep an eye on changes in input costs and commodity prices. With lower cotton prices and high production costs in 2023, many producers will still be struggling economically.
Reference: https://www.farmprogress.com/cotton/u-s-cotton-growers-to-plant-less-in-2023-
